By Richard Colwill • Alexander Tancock • Warner Priest

Shipping is faced with a supply problem, not just the perpetual concerns about suitably qualified and experienced personnel, or container supply and distribution, but also a new challenge on the near horizon. The measures agreed upon at the April 2025 International Maritime Organization Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (IMO MEPC 83) require a transition to low-carbon fuels that may not be available in the quantities needed to meet future emission reduction targets.

The MEPC 83 agreement, when formally adopted in October 2025 as expected, will chart a course for international shipping that requires the use of lower (LNG or e-methanol) or zero (blue or green ammonia) carbon-emission fuels. Modeling of the future MEPC 83 landscape suggests that from the mid-2030s ammonia is likely to be the least-cost option, either of the “blue” (where carbon is sequestrated) or “green” (developed from hydrogen electrolysis, powered by renewable energy) variety.

It’s worth noting the basic time scales involved in the emerging fuels market: Developers seek 10- to 15-year offtake agreements with the shipping industry. Meanwhile, the shipping industry takes three to four years to build a vessel for a 25-year operating life, while eight to 15 years are required to create major supply for a 25- to 50-year investment period.

“The development of the value chain for e-fuels cannot be delayed until the late 2030s if it is to reach technological and commercial viability in time for full scale up,” according to the Getting to Zero Coalition maritime forum.

Project Development

InterContinental Energy was created more than a decade ago to address the fundamental questions of where the large-scale renewable energy sites of the future should be located and how they can be developed. The company recognizes that if a significant proportion of fossil fuel were to be displaced globally, then renewable energy sites of significant scale would be required to support direct electrification and e-fuel creation. This global search requires assessment of: wind and solar resources; population distributions; environmental values mapping; and industrial and project capability.

Three initial projects have been developed from the initial global assessment, focused on remote coastal desert sites: the Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) in Western Australia; the Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH) in Western Australia, in partnership with the Mirning Traditional Owners; and Green Energy Oman (GEO) in Oman, in partnership with Shell.

The InterContinental Energy portfolio represents some of the largest and most ambitious projects in the world. Yet, the targeted capacity of 8 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of green hydrogen production to be brought online between 2035 and 2050 is only a small portion of the current bunker fuel market, which is around 250 to 300 MTPA. Successful development of many other projects worldwide will be needed to meet global demand for e-fuels—of which the maritime industry will be only one customer.

The key steps for e-fuels project development include: site selection, with an overview of opportunities and constraints; resource validation, including wind and solar monitoring; land negotiation with government and traditional owners/users; environmental impact review; engineering to define, develop, and deliver viable concepts; and offtake agreements to develop fully bankable projects.

These steps are similar to large-resource oil and gas projects, particularly the establishment of the LNG industry. However, the e-fuels industry is new, and while its protagonists may be traveling a well-trod path, there is a requirement to educate authorities, regulators, stakeholders, and investors on the opportunities and challenges of this new industry.

InterContinental Energy is now well along this path, with projects set to receive final investment decisions by/around the 2030s that will ensure large-scale supply from the mid-2030s onward. Such projects will provide key stability for the marine industry, where fuel volatility in the last three years has seen very low sulphur fuel oil pivot between $500 and $1,100 USD per tonne. Development of such e-fuels projects allows customers to lock-in fuel price with zero-carbon characteristics for the long term, making shipowners future-proof against anticipated tightening of emission standards.

 

 

The Opportunity and Challenge of Scale

While large projects, such as InterContinental Energy’s AREH, WGEH, and GEO, offer the opportunity to meet the demands of the marine industry at scale, they have intrinsic challenges and tensions. There is a gap between how the first phase of a project can be credibly and competitively developed and the best arrangement of the final project to deliver maximum competitiveness.

This gap is linked to investments that are made in overcoming initial logistical and economic hurdles associated with scaling supply chains, optimizing production costs, and addressing storage and transport challenges.

To tackle these issues, InterContinental Energy has developed the P2(H2)Node. Just as standardized shipping containers revolutionized the global shipping industry, the P2(H2)Node’s standardized architecture could streamline the green hydrogen industry by replacing bespoke projects with a uniform architecture. Removing complexity and increasing repeatability will ensure all projects can access the lowest cost of production.

Conventional centralized models require expensive electricity transmission, leading to energy losses and inefficiencies. The patented P2(H2)Node system flips this model by co-locating giga-scale hydrogen production with wind and solar farms, ensuring power is used where it’s generated and the highest power efficiency and least-cost fuel product can be obtained, within a development model that permits expansion to meet shipping’s significant future demand.

Key advantages of the P2(H2)Node architecture include: up to 10 percent less CAPEX through standardization, modularity, reduced electrical infrastructure, and reduced storage requirements; up to 10 percent more efficiency through design optimization and elimination of very-high-voltage power equipment; and built-in energy storage to allow for more consistent flow delivery to customers via line packing of hydrogen pipelines.

Taken together, this system lowers production costs by 10 to 20 percent; builds sustainable supply chains; and will enable faster large-scale hydrogen adoption for industries such as green iron, fertilizers, global shipping, and aviation fuels.

Pioneering Hydrogen Hub

Showcasing the early development of hydrogen production, the P2(H2)Node architecture serves as the backbone of Australia’s groundbreaking Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH), set in the southeast of Western Australia. This project, which may ultimately expand across 22,000 km2 of tableland, will be developed in multiple phases to match demand for green hydrogen and ammonia exports.

Its scale, with ultimate buildout to 28 MTPA of green e-fuels capacity, positions it as the world’s largest and most cost-efficient green e-fuels hub. With the support of newly announced Australian government hydrogen incentives, WGEH is projected to drive down production costs for green ammonia below $650 USD per tonne from the mid-2030s, unlocking competitive zero-carbon fuel provision. This ability to provide large volumes of competitively priced e-fuels is a key part of the puzzle as the marine industry seeks to navigate the challenges of long-term vessel and bunkering investments.

 

 

Conclusion

The bunker fuel market is on the cusp of a major transformation as a result of the MEPC 83 agreement; however, this transition depends on scalable, cost-effective production of alternatives, particularly the development of fully “green” e-fuels developed from renewable energy.

InterContinental Energy’s development of an extensive project portfolio and the P2(H2)Node solution offers a global, scalable, cost-efficient model for providing green molecules to the hard-to-decarbonize, heavy-industry marine sector. Such initiatives and the support of far-sighted investors and customers will be instrumental to ensure a sustainable and efficient energy transition.

 

Richard Colwill is the head of engineering and innovation at InterContinental Energy.

 

 

 

 

Alexander Tancock is the CEO of InterContinental Energy.

 

 

 

 

Warner Priest is the midstream director at InterContinental Energy.