The DNV GL Maritime Forecast to 2050 provides an independent forecast of the maritime energy future and examines how the energy transition will affect the shipping industry.

DNV GL Maritime has released its second Maritime Forecast to 2050, part of a suite of energy transition outlook (ETO) reports launched Sept. 10, 2018 in London. The forecast provides an independent forecast of the maritime energy future and examines how the energy transition will affect the shipping industry.

Following the 2017 report, the new Maritime Forecast to 2050 focuses on the challenges of decarbonizing the shipping industry. It examines recent changes in shipping activity and fuel consumption, future developments in the types and levels of cargoes transported and future regulations, fuels and technology drivers.

In the first maritime forecast, DNV GL introduced the concept of the “carbon robust” ship. The 2018 forecast develops this concept with a new model that now evaluates fuel and technology options by comparing the break-even costs of a design to that of the competing fleet of ships. This aims to support maritime stakeholders in evaluating the long-term competitiveness of their vessels and fleets and to future-proof their assets.

A case study utilizing the model in several vessel designs reveals some striking findings, including that investing in energy efficiency and reduced carbon footprint beyond existing standards can increase the competitiveness of a vessel over its lifetime. The study also suggests that owners of high-emitting vessels could be exposed to significant market risks in 2030 and 2040.

The forecast predicts a rise of nearly a third (32%) in seaborne trade measured in ton-miles for 2016–2030, but only 5% growth over the period 2030–2050. This is based on the results of DNV GL’s updated global model, which is described in detail in the DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018. The model encompasses the global energy supply and demand, and the use and exchange of energy within and between ten world regions.

Download the full report here: https://eto.dnvgl.com/2018/maritime.