UK Advances Strongly in Energy Transition
The U.K.’s energy transition will deliver a cleaner, more efficient and less expensive energy system, according to DNV’s 2025 UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report.
The independent energy expert and assurance provider assessed the UK’s trajectory against key government targets: Clean Power 2030, 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, and the net zero by 2050 goal.
While the U.K. will fall short—missing net zero by 18 percent—DNV’s analysis shows substantial progress in decarbonization. By 2050, emissions are projected to drop 82 percent from 1990 levels, amounting to remaining annual emissions of 145 million tons of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e).
The short-term Clean Power 2030 target sets an ambition to decarbonize the electricity system by decade’s end, but DNV forecasts that unabated gas will still generate 12 percent of U.K. electricity in 2030. Full decarbonization is expected by 2035.
Renewables will see strong growth, with solar, onshore wind and offshore wind capacity nearly doubling to 90 GW by 2030. However, this remains 45 GW short of government targets to double onshore wind, triple solar and quadruple offshore wind.
Under the new NDC, the U.K. has committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81 percent by 2035, compared to 1990 levels. DNV’s projections suggest it will reach only 68 percent, requiring steeper reductions to meet the U.K.’s pledge.